Can the cocoa cycle model explain the continuous growth of the rubber (Hevea brasiliensis) sector for more than a century in Thailand?

According to the cocoa cycle model constructed over the four centuries of cocoa history, after a commodity boom in a region, there comes a recession. When the world price increases again, that region can benefit marginally or has at least to wait for a long period before rebounding; meanwhile, a new region takes over. The case of the Thai rubber economy with continuous, long-term growth shows that several factors-ecological (physiology of the crop), technical (high yielding planting material), political (strong support from public policy) and social (important role of local populations)-can explain some of the divergence from the cocoa cycle model. This suggests a need to update and enrich the model with new scenarios and options.

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